NATIONAL NEWS

Sales

The number of sales since November has been volatile, but appears to have stabilized.  Click here to see the Sales-US graph.  Existing, pending and new construction sales all show positive gains month over month.  Click here to see the Sales-month over month table.

Mortgaging & Interest Rates

Mortgage rates for 30 year fixed loans are the lowest they have ever been.  Click here to see the Mortgage Rates graph.

The percentage of total loans held by Fannie, Freddie and FHA/VA has increased to 73.5% and 19.8% respectively.  Click here to see the Enterprise & FHA/VA graph.

Bank of America is among the major banks rolling out jumbo mortgage programs and holding the loans in their own portfolios.  It will offer loans from $730,000 to $1.5 million with 30-year fixed rates under 6%, but borrowers must make a 20% down payment, have good credit, provide proof of income and hold 6 months of principal interest, property tax and insurance payments in reserve.  Source: Chicago Daily Herald 3/20/09

Pricing

The 10 ?City Composite Index was effectively flat during the last month but was still down 2.1% over the most recent three month period.  This represents the first non-declining month since the inception of the Composite Index in January 2008.  Listing prices have moved up or down by less than 1% for the month in 16 of 26 markets, indicating at least some level of stability.  Source: Altos Research & Real IQ 2/9/09

The following are the price changes year over year from 5 indices:

Home prices have declined by at least 10% on a year-over-year basis for 11 consecutive months and February preview data indicates the trend will continue, according to a report released by First America CoreLogic.

Nearly three-quarters of all core-based statistical areas are now experiencing declines, almost three times more than a year ago.  The economic downturn and high levels of distressed housing inventory means that the likelihood of a price recovery will not begin until 2010.  Source: Housing Wire 3/24/09

Sales and Inventory

For those of you who relate to graphs, the following links will illustrate the relationship between sales and inventory.  The norm is 5-6 months of inventory and we are now at 10 months.  Click here to see Existing Home Sales and Inventory, click here to see Existing Home Sales and click here to see Existing Home Inventory, Monthly.

For new home sales and inventory, click here to see New Home Sales and Inventory and click here to see New Home Construction.  You can see that there has been a small blip up in new home construction, hopefully indicating that it is stabilizing.

Foreclosures

The number of serious delinquencies is increasing for all loan products.  Click here to see Serious Delinquencies Rising Rapidly.  "Some of the top U.S. lenders own as many as 700,000 foreclosed homes they have yet to offer for sale," said Rick Sharga, Executive Vice President of Marketing for RealtyTrac.  Source: Bloomberg 3/12/09

Because home prices continue to drop across most of the country, the mortgage debt on about 20% of all U.S. single-family homes exceeded the estimated current value of those properties as of Dec. 31st.  That's a situation often known as being "underwater" or "upside down."  That proportion will rise to 25% if prices fall another 5%.  Source: Wall Street Journal First American CoreLogic 3/4/09

Norm Miller, Director of Real Estate Programs at the Univ. of San Diego School of Business Administration, states that a third of owners will stop making mortgage payments if the value of their home drops 20% or more below what they owe, a situation known as "rational default."
Source: Bloomberg 3/5/09

Buyers

A number of networks and magazines have been recommending that this is a good time to invest in real estate:

• CBS Early Show money maven Ray Martin stated that now is a good time to invest in real estate because prices are declining nationwide, mortgage rates on a 30-year fixed mortgage are at a level we won't see again in our lifetime and, if you buy before December 1, you'll get an $8000 tax credit if you are a first-time home buyer.  Source: CBS.com 3/14/09
• For the first time in a long time, you can actually get both a short and long-term gain on a real estate investment.  Source: Barbara Corcoran NC TodayShow.com 3/12/09
• Ten things to buy before the economy improves: At the top of the list - housing.  This may be the best time in a generation to buy a home.  Source: Forbes.com 3/31/09
• "It's a good time to snag a bargain if you're confident in your job prospects and you don't plan to sell for at least five years."  Source: Kiplinger's Personal Finance 3/09

Seven Reasons to Buy a House This Year

1. Affordability is better than ever.  Click here to see the Housing Affordability Index.
2. You have a large inventory to choose from.
3. Mortgage rates are historically low ? the lowest since 1970.
4. The national median price of a home is down from $218,000 in June 2008 to $164,600 in February 2009.
5. Benefits of tax deductions.  You can deduct most of your monthly mortgage payments from your taxable income.
6. Homeownership has been a proven way to build wealth.
7. There is a first time homebuyer stimulus tax credit of $8,000 good til December 1, 2009.  Click here to see the Criteria Table.

Sellers

It is spring and the inventory and sales are increasing.  However, now is not the time to increase the list price of your home.  The continued increase in foreclosures will place downward pressure on home prices.  The prices will continue to decrease until inventory has been reduced to the 5-6 month level and the balance of supply and demand causes pricing pressure. 

NORTH CAROLINA AND GREATER WILMINGTON

Forbes has ranked Wilmington No. 13 on its annual list of best cities for business and careers.  Wilmington is one of six cities in North Carolina that ranked in the top 20.  It is interesting that so many cities in N.C. topped the list, since the state has the nation's fourth highest unemployment rate.

Wilmington's 9% unemployment rate is at a 25-year high, but it continues to gain population, a leading factor in economic growth.  The U.S. Census Bureau ranked Wilmington 26th in the nation for growth.  The diversity of industries ? film, health care, energy and tourism - may  also help weather the recession.   As a boon to the film industry, EUE/Screen Gems will open the third-largest film and production stage in May.  Source: Star News 3/30/09, 3/19/09

Brunswick County now ranks 28th among all U.S. counties for growth from 7/07-7/08.  The population grew by 4.2%.  Source: Star News 3/19/09.

March 2009 MLS Report pulled 4/11/09

Listing Inventory: Although inventory usually increases in the spring, the last couple of months have seen very small increases in inventory.  There are 5,539 single family homes for sale in MLS.

Monthly Average Sold Price: The monthly average sold price is 6.6% down from last month and 7.6% down from March 2008.  March average sold price of $219,111 shows a decline of 14.6% from year end 2008.

Median Sold Price: The median sold price is down 2.3% from last month.

Monthly Sold Units: The number of homes sold is up 32.9% from last month.

Market Absorption Rate: The number of homes sold in March (331) divided by the current listing inventory (5,539) gives us a 16.7 month supply of single-family homes.

List to Sold Price Ratio: The average list price of sold properties is $235,641 and the average sold price is $219,110, yielding a 93% list to sold ratio.

Days on Market: The average days on market for sold properties stayed about the same as last month ? 138 days.

CAROLINA AND KURE BEACH

The inventory increased eight units over March.  There are currently 617 homes for sale.
The average list price of $463,787 is a decrease of 2.3% over March 2009.
There is a 28+ month supply of homes on the market.
For the rolling 12 months, the average sold price has decreased 13.2%

Please pass this information along to your friends and family and encourage them to subscribe to the monthly Keeping Current at my website www.DianeLMoore.com.